Here’s the hard truth: Manny Machado’s legacy in San Diego is about to get a lot more expensive—and the pressure is on. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is a $15 million annual raise in 2027 justified, or could it become a financial albatross for the Padres? Let’s dive in.
Long before the blockbuster trades and postseason glory, Manny Machado was the lone star willing to bet on San Diego. Today, he’s a franchise legend—the Padres’ all-time home run leader, a three-time All-Star, and the driving force behind multiple playoff runs. Yet, baseball is a business, and Machado’s hero status in San Diego is about to face its biggest test.
In 2019, Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million deal, one of the richest in baseball history. Later, he restructured his contract into an 11-year, $350 million extension, locking him in through 2033. And this is the part most people miss: His salary jumps from $25 million in 2026 to nearly $40 million annually for the remainder of the deal. While Machado has consistently delivered All-Star-caliber performance, the bar is about to get higher—much higher.
Take this tweet from Jeff Passan as a reminder of the stakes:
'Star third baseman Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres are finalizing an 11-year, $350 million contract extension... Machado helped turn around the franchise. He'll stay as the ascendant Padres seek their first championship.' – Jeff Passan, February 26, 2023
With Machado’s raise on the horizon, you’d expect the Padres to capitalize on their final year of financial flexibility. Instead, this offseason has been eerily quiet. General Manager A.J. Preller has made minimal moves, aside from re-signings and the affordable addition of KBO star Sung-Mun Song. Meanwhile, the roster is getting pricier, with Yu Darvish costing $15 million annually (despite missing the 2026 season), Fernando Tatis Jr.’s extension kicking in, and Nick Pivetta’s salary climbing to $20 million.
For now, the Padres can weather a quiet offseason, but the spotlight shifts to Machado in 2026. If his production dips, his contract could become a major headache for the front office. Since 2023, Machado has smashed 86 home runs with a 119 wRC+, though his defensive metrics (minus-0.7 outs above average) have been less impressive. FanGraphs projects him to finish 2026 with a 3.2 WAR, 23 home runs, and 84 RBIs—solid numbers, but will they justify a $40 million price tag?
Here’s the silver lining: Machado’s underlying metrics suggest he’s primed for a strong season. In 2025, he ranked in the 93rd percentile in exit velocity, 81st in barrel rate, and 92nd in hard-hit rate. A bit more luck, and his output could soar in 2026. But the question remains: Can he sustain this level of play as his salary skyrockets?
Bold prediction: Machado’s contract could become a lightning rod for debate. If he thrives, it’s a steal. If he falters, it’s a burden. What do you think? Is Machado worth every penny, or is the Padres’ front office taking a risky gamble? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments!
