Winter Storms: When to Trust the Apps and When to Call the Experts
As the winter storm approaches, many people turn to their smartphones for weather updates. But how reliable are these apps, and what's the catch? While weather apps can be handy for mild weather, meteorologists emphasize the importance of human expertise during severe winter storms. Here's why you might want to tune in to local TV or radio, online livestreams, or detailed websites for the most accurate forecasts.
The current storm, affecting multiple states, brings heavy snow, treacherous ice, and subzero temperatures. This highlights the need for forecasters who can explain the nuances of such storms. According to meteorologists interviewed by The Associated Press, weather data changes rapidly before and during the storm, and even a few miles can make a significant difference in the type of precipitation you experience.
University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd explains that weather apps struggle with storms involving multiple types of precipitation, making it challenging to convey accurate information. Apps lack the understanding of the specific conditions that lead to snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtado and other experts agree that human forecasters with local expertise are crucial, especially during extreme weather events. Many weather apps use AI methods, which can introduce errors in forecasting.
However, not all apps are created equal. Some apps can be useful, particularly those that combine National Weather Service data with meteorologists' expertise. The Weather Channel app, for instance, uses multiple models, data sources, weather observers, and staff, ensuring a more accurate forecast. James Belanger, vice president of its parent company, emphasizes the importance of this comprehensive approach.
Apps often rely on data from the National Weather Service, with some companies adding proprietary information and European forecast models. They can provide forecasts by ZIP code or areas far from weather stations using software that focuses on regional forecasts. However, many apps oversimplify uncertainty and present precise-looking numbers that may not reflect the actual confidence in the forecast, according to Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini.
Steven DiMartino of NY NJ PA Weather agrees that weather apps are better suited for nice summer days rather than severe winter storms. His paid online subscription service, which emphasizes human expertise, uses the slogan 'Meteorology Not Modelology.' DiMartino highlights the limitation of apps in providing explanations, stating that data alone is not enough; meteorologists are needed to interpret and adjust the data.
Cory Mottice, a National Weather Service meteorologist, developed the EverythingWeather app, which uses weather service data and provides easy access to local forecasts. He emphasizes the importance of human oversight in meteorology, as many apps rely solely on raw computer modeling data, which may not be reliable during extreme events.
The Weather Channel app, on the other hand, takes a more comprehensive approach. It uses information from various sources, including the weather service and over 100 weather models, both from the U.S. and Europe, along with its own model. They also incorporate citizen input to enhance forecasts. According to The Weather Company's Belanger, AI synthesizes this data to create a more accurate forecast, but human meteorologists still have the final say.
Belanger highlights the importance of combining technological advancements with human oversight to provide the best forecasts, especially during challenging weather situations.
While apps and social media can provide quick updates, meteorologists caution against relying solely on these sources. Social media can spread misinformation and hype, and it may not provide the nuanced understanding of weather complexities that are crucial during severe events. According to Kim Klockow McClain, an extreme weather social scientist, people should be cautious about misled forecasts and trust official sources over time.
In summary, while weather apps can be helpful, meteorologists advise using them alongside human expertise, especially during severe winter storms. Local TV, radio, and detailed websites can offer more accurate and nuanced forecasts, ensuring you're well-prepared for the upcoming winter storm.
